TRUMP’S TREATMENT OF NIGERIA — THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD, THE FOREIGN POLICY OPPORTUNITIES FOR NIGERIA, AND WHAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MUST DO TO GET AHEAD

— Tinubu, Trump

By Olupitan B.Adebayo( Msc Finance(Unilag) ,ACIPM,MIPMA,MICA, MCIA.)

Introduction

The relationship between the United States and Nigeria is entering a potentially fraught phase. Under Donald Trump’s administration, several hard-edged policy moves toward Nigeria have been announced—tariffs on Nigerian exports, designation of Nigeria as a “country of particular concern” over religious-freedom issues, threats of military intervention, and more restrictive visa policies. These constitute what might be called “Trump’s threats to Nigeria” (offers and threats alike). Understanding the implications globally, the opportunities this presents for Nigeria’s foreign policy, and what Nigeria’s federal government must do to stay ahead is critical.

What exactly is happening?

Here are key actions and statements affecting Nigeria:

In April 2025 the U.S. imposed a 14 % tariff on Nigerian exports, citing trade imbalance.

In August 2025, the U.S. reportedly announced even higher tariffs (e.g., 15 %) on imports from Nigeria and other African countries as part of a “reciprocal trade adjustment”.

In November 2025 Trump threatened to cut off all U.S. aid to Nigeria and directed the U.S. military (via the “Department of War/Defence”) to prepare for possible intervention, over alleged killings of Christians in Nigeria.

Nigeria responded by rejecting the depiction of religious intolerance, while also signalling openness to U.S. assistance as long as Nigeria’s sovereignty is respected.

Nigeria is attempting to engage diplomatically with the U.S. to deepen cooperation in trade, security, energy and other areas.

These elements—tariffs, military threat, aid suspension risk, and trade/security overtures—form a complex set of “threats” from the U.S. to Nigeria: on one hand sanctions and pressure; on the other offers of partnership and investment.

The global implications

1. For U.S.–Africa relations

The U.S. under Trump appears to be re-shaping how it deals with Africa: more transactional, more conditional (e.g., religious-freedom thresholds, security cooperation), less about long-term development assistance or cooperation for its own sake. This shift means African states like Nigeria must recalibrate expectations of U.S. partnership.

2. For trade and global supply chains

Tariffs on Nigerian exports reduce demand for Nigerian goods in the U.S. market, threatening Nigeria’s foreign-exchange inflows and thereby influencing global commodity flows and investment decisions. Analysts warned that the U.S. tariffs may weaken the naira and reduce oil-export earnings.

3. For regional security

If U.S. military involvement in Nigeria or the region becomes credible, this has major implications for West African stability, sovereignty of states, regional organisations (e.g., African Union, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)), and precedent for extra-regional interventions in Africa.

4. For multilateral norms

The designation of Nigeria as a “country of particular concern” for religious-freedom violations and threats of aid suspension raises questions about how human-rights norms, sovereignty, and bilateral relations will interact — signalling that “norms” may be more closely tied to geopolitics and conditionality than before.

5. For Nigeria’s role in Africa

Nigeria has for decades played a leadership role in West Africa and Africa broadly. If Nigeria is placed under pressure by the U.S., it may affect its leadership credibility, its relations with neighbours, and its capacity to act as a regional stabiliser.

Foreign-policy opportunities in favour of Nigeria

Despite the threats, there are openings for Nigeria’s foreign policy that can be leveraged:

a) Diversify partnerships

Given the U.S.’ tougher posture, Nigeria can strengthen ties with other major powers (e.g., China, India, EU) and deepen intra-African trade (under the African Continental Free Trade Area “AfCFTA”). Tariff pressure from the U.S. offers an impetus to reduce dependency on single export markets.

b) Leverage security cooperation

Though there are threats, Nigeria can also use the rhetoric of shared threats (terrorism, extremism) to negotiate better security Partnerships with the U.S. While protecting its sovereignty, Nigeria can secure intelligence, training, equipment and joint operations from the U.S. and other allies.

c) Export diversification

Tariff threats underline the need for Nigeria to shift away from oil dependence and build non-oil exports that meet global standards, so that it is less vulnerable to external shocks. Nigeria’s trade ministry has stated this is a priority.

d) Soft-power and leadership

Nigeria can use diplomatic channels to shape African responses to extra-regional intervention and to promote African solutions to African problems. By positioning itself as a voice for African sovereignty and agency, Nigeria can enhance its soft power and leadership role on the continent.

What the Federal Government must do to get ahead

For Nigeria’s federal government to navigate these developments proactively, several specific actions are required:

1. Strengthen export competitiveness & diversify

Accelerate non-oil export development: improve quality, traceability, and meet U.S. and global standards so tariffs matter less.

Engage in trade diplomacy: negotiate with the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, while exploring new markets.

Invest in value-addition: rather than exporting crude, build refining, manufacturing, and agro-processing to reduce exposure.

2. Deepen strategic diplomacy

React quickly: Nigeria must engage the U.S. diplomatically to clarify positions (e.g., deny or contextualise the allegations regarding religious persecution) and to shape the narrative.

Multilateral channels: Use the African Union, ECOWAS, and other regional groupings to push for coordinated responses and reinforce Nigeria’s leadership role.

Strengthen bilateral ties with other major partners: avoid being over-reliant on U.S. goodwill.

3. Ensure security and respect for human rights

Address the root causes of unrest: terrorism, communal violence, farmers-herders conflict, and religious tensions. The more Nigeria demonstrates effective control and governance, the less leverage external actors have to threaten aid cuts or intervention.

Uphold transparency and accountability: demonstrate both internally and externally that Nigeria is protecting all citizens regardless of religion, to counter perceptions that fuel external threats.

4. Protect sovereignty while managing cooperation

Accept assistance only on terms that respect Nigeria’s territorial integrity and decision-making. Nigeria welcomed U.S. help but insisted sovereignty must be respected.

Build capacity domestically so that cooperation isn’t one-sided and doesn’t produce dependency.

5. Communicate clearly & proactively

Public diplomacy: Nigeria must clearly communicate its perspective to both domestic and international audiences—explain what is happening on the ground, its efforts to address problems, and its commitment to broader values.

Alert domestic stakeholders: Business, civil society and state governments must be aware of the risks (tariffs, visa restrictions, aid cuts) so they can adjust strategies accordingly.

6. Build resilience to external shocks

Strengthen foreign-exchange reserves, deepen intra-African trade, and reduce dependence on any one export or trading partner.

Develop contingency plans for scenarios like aid reductions, sanctions, or trade disruptions.

Conclusion

What may appear at first as mere “treats”—or threats—from President Trump’s U.S. administration toward Nigeria actually carry serious implications. Globally, these moves shift U.S.–Africa dynamics, affect trade flows and security paradigms. For Nigeria, they pose risks but also open opportunities for recalibration of foreign policy, diversification of partnerships, and deeper internal reforms.

If Nigeria’s federal government acts strategically—strengthening exports, deepening diplomatic relations, ensuring internal security and human-rights protections, and building resilience to external shocks—it can not only navigate the current pressures but emerge in a stronger position internationally and domestically.

The game is changing for Nigeria; the question is whether Nigeria will be ahead of the change, or find itself reacting to change.